Uncertainty of performance is an obstacle for greater uptake of many renewable energy technologies that
depend on local environmental conditions. The ability to successfully complete involving a groundwater-
source heat pumps or other projects using groundwater for heating and cooling is highly dependent on
local geological conditions. Use of geostatistical information on aquifer properties and analysis of
previous projects in a region show some promise in assessing the risk in these projects. An example of
a possible methodology is given here for open loop heat pump and other groundwater-source heating
and cooling projects in Manitoba, Canada. Stochastic modeling of open loop heat pumps was able to
explain the number of wells unable to produce or inject sufficient water from the aquifer, demonstrating
the efficacy of this technique. This type of approach also provides insight into the viability of possible
mitigation options to successfully finish projects where conditions would not have supported the
original design of such systems.